Return-Path: Delivered-To: directory@aicenergycorp.com Received: from server.64xmedia.com by server.64xmedia.com with LMTP id GOeANES44GEkQQAAdUq3JA (envelope-from ) for ; Thu, 13 Jan 2022 18:39:48 -0500 Return-path: Envelope-to: directory@aicenergycorp.com Delivery-date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 18:39:48 -0500 Received: from atl4mhob12.registeredsite.com ([209.17.115.50]:45286) by server.64xmedia.com with esmtps (TLS1.2) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (Exim 4.94.2) (envelope-from ) id 1n89h6-0004K8-Cj for directory@aicenergycorp.com; Thu, 13 Jan 2022 18:39:48 -0500 Received: from mailpod.hostingplatform.com ([10.30.71.209]) by atl4mhob12.registeredsite.com (8.14.4/8.14.4) with ESMTP id 20DNd4UQ021649 (version=TLSv1/SSLv3 cipher=DHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=FAIL) for ; Thu, 13 Jan 2022 18:39:04 -0500 Received: (qmail 2661 invoked by uid 0); 13 Jan 2022 23:39:04 -0000 X-TCPREMOTEIP: 24.230.175.2 X-Authenticated-UID: kspilman@keitu.com Received: from unknown (HELO SunrisePeach) (kspilman@keitu.com@24.230.175.2) by 0 with ESMTPA; 13 Jan 2022 23:39:04 -0000 From: To: "'Kosstrin, Herbert M. [US-US]'" Cc: "'Jennifer Wilson'" , "'Behrens, Clare T. [US-US]'" , "Roger Grimes @AIC" , "'John Melk'" , , "Kris Keller @Keitu" , "Phil Stack @Keitu" Subject: Canola Crush Plant Capacities Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 17:40:15 -0600 Message-ID: <004001d808d6$ead327c0$c0797740$@keitu.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0041_01D808A4.A03A1750" X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 16.0 Thread-Index: AdgI0X4GtaWRjqgaR0ucGUtxXMSA6Q== Content-Language: en-us X-Spam-Status: No, score= X-Spam-Score: X-Spam-Bar: X-Ham-Report: X-Spam-Flag: NO This is a multipart message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01D808A4.A03A1750 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Per your request. This one is far more difficult than the soybean plants for a couple of reasons. The ADM plants are all "switch" operations. All do sunflower oil and canola. All I could do for ADM is to find a reference in their annual report about crush plants running at 90% throughput. I did finally get the capacities from the Northern Canola Growers Assn for the existing plants. But the 3 ADM plants listed in BOLD apparently process both sunflower and canola. No way to get information on what throughput was used for what. The USDA purposely obfuscate the location specific data in their reports with the footnote (D) "Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations" The 2021 operational throughput numbers from the USDA will be out in March. Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks 2020 Summary 03/01/2021 (cornell.edu) I included the Great Falls MT plant only for completeness just to assure everyone it was not overlooked. But everything I can find on this small plant indicated that they are targeting a specialty food market with their operation. I am going to update my feedstock report for the Phase 2 application document and incorporate some observations from a couple of recent articles as well as noting the proposed approval of canola pathway that was published by the USEPA apparently on Monday of this week. Sounds like AIC will likely engage another consultant to do a separate feedstock study. As mentioned previously, a contractual obligation with new capacity coming online is the intended approach. If they can finalize that, we will need to update our documents. Renewable Diesel Plans Could Outstrip Soybean Acres, Soy Oil Supplies (dtnpf.com) Renewable diesel gaining traction in US, Canada | IHS Markit At least one of the articles contend that more acreage will need to be planted to avoid impacting soy exports, which in turn will threaten dry bean exports. I am a big believer in Occam's Razor - or "KISS" principals - keep it simple. The USA soy exports will drop with the new demand created for renewable fuel feedstock and the consumers in Asia and elsewhere will just source their imported food from somewhere else. Plenty of soybeans and canola grown and as one of the articles suggest, likely displace wheat. Also saw on the USDA website that they are trialing a different version of canola in the "southern Great Plains" i.e. Nebraska and Kansas. I take this to mean winter wheat may be the crop displaced to accommodate renewable fuels. Kathye Location (Existing) Operator Seed Capacity Oil Capacity Utilization* Distance to SAFX (miles) Enderlin, ND ADM Northern Sun 45 MMBY 130 MMGY 90% 379 Velva, ND ADM 85 MMBY 248 MMGY 84% 165 West Fargo, ND Cargill Inc. 45 MMBY 130 MMGY 90% 358 Haddock/Kennedy, MN CHS, Inc. 45 MMBY 130 MMGY 92% 435 Red Wing, MN ADM 75 MMBY 220 MMGY 90% 657 Yorkton SK Richardson Int'l 96 MMBY 280 MMGY 96% 431 Great Falls, MT MSN & Colombia Grain** 4 MMBY 10 MMGY Not Applicable Not Applicable New Plants - Canola Northgate SK Ceres Global Ag 48 MMBY 140 MMGY Not Applicable 166 Yorkton SK Expansion Richardson Int'l 96 MMBY 280 MMGY Not Applicable 520 Regina SK 1.1 Cargill Inc. 96 MMBY 280 MMGY Not Applicable 420 Regina SK 2.5 Viterra 220 MMBY 640 MMGY Not Applicable 420 TBD North Dakota Bartlett Grain 42.5 MMBY 124 MMGY Not Applicable TBD New Plants - Corn Grand Forks The Fufeng Group 25 MMBY 4.3 MMGY Not Applicable 334 * Average 2020 USA Utilization Rate is 92% ** Non-GMO Only 2019 MT Speciality Mills ------=_NextPart_000_0041_01D808A4.A03A1750 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Per your = request.

 

This one is far more difficult than the soybean plants = for a couple of reasons.  The ADM plants are all = “switch” operations.  All do sunflower oil and canola. =  All I could do for ADM is to find a reference in their annual = report about crush plants running at 90% throughput.   I did = finally get the capacities from the Northern Canola Growers Assn for the = existing plants.  But the 3 ADM plants listed in BOLD apparently = process both sunflower and canola.  No way to get information on = what throughput was used for what.  The USDA purposely obfuscate = the location specific data in their reports with the footnote (D) = “Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual = operations”   The 2021 operational throughput numbers = from the USDA will be out in March.

 

Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, = Production, Consumption and Stocks 2020 Summary 03/01/2021 = (cornell.edu)

 

I included = the Great Falls MT plant only for completeness just to assure everyone = it was not overlooked.  But everything I can find on this small = plant indicated that they are targeting a specialty food market with = their operation.

 

I am going = to update my feedstock report for the Phase 2 application document and = incorporate some observations from a couple of recent articles as well = as noting the proposed approval of canola pathway that was published by = the USEPA apparently on Monday of this week.  Sounds like AIC will = likely engage another consultant to do a separate feedstock study.  = As mentioned previously, a contractual obligation with new capacity = coming online is the intended approach.  If they can finalize that, = we will need to update our documents.

 

Renewable Diesel = Plans Could Outstrip Soybean Acres, Soy Oil Supplies = (dtnpf.com)

 

Renewable diesel gaining = traction in US, Canada | IHS Markit

 

At least one = of the articles contend that more acreage will need to be planted to = avoid impacting soy exports, which in turn will threaten dry bean = exports.  I am a big believer in Occam’s Razor – or = “KISS” principals - keep it simple.  The USA soy = exports will drop with the new demand created for renewable fuel = feedstock and the consumers in Asia and elsewhere will just source their = imported food from somewhere else.  Plenty of soybeans and canola = grown and as one of the articles suggest, likely displace wheat.  = Also saw on the USDA website that they are trialing a different version = of canola in the “southern Great Plains” i.e. Nebraska and = Kansas. I take this to mean winter wheat may be the crop displaced to = accommodate renewable fuels.

 

Kathye =

 

 

Location = (Existing)

Operator

Seed Capacity

Oil Capacity

Utilization*

Distance to SAFX = (miles)

Enderlin, ND

ADM Northern = Sun

45 = MMBY

130 = MMGY

90%

379

Velva, ND

ADM

85 = MMBY

248 = MMGY

84%

165

West Fargo, ND

Cargill = Inc.

45 = MMBY

130 = MMGY

90%

358

Haddock/Kennedy, MN

CHS, = Inc.

45 = MMBY

130 = MMGY

92%

435

Red Wing, MN

ADM

75 = MMBY

220 = MMGY

90%

657

Yorkton SK

Richardson = Int'l

96 = MMBY

280 = MMGY

96%

431

Great Falls, = MT

MSN & Colombia = Grain**

4 = MMBY

10 = MMGY

Not = Applicable

Not Applicable

New Plants - = Canola

 

 

 

 

 

Northgate SK

Ceres Global = Ag

48 = MMBY

140 = MMGY

Not Applicable

166

Yorkton SK Expansion

Richardson = Int'l

96 = MMBY

280 = MMGY

Not = Applicable

520

Regina SK 1.1

Cargill = Inc.

96 = MMBY

280 = MMGY

Not = Applicable

420

Regina SK 2.5

Viterra

220 = MMBY

640 = MMGY

Not = Applicable

420

TBD North Dakota

Bartlett = Grain

42.5 = MMBY

124 = MMGY

Not = Applicable

TBD

New Plants - = Corn

 

 

 

 

 

Grand Forks

The Fufeng Group

25 = MMBY

4.3 = MMGY

Not Applicable

334

* Average 2020 USA = Utilization Rate is 92%

** Non-GMO Only 2019 MT = Speciality Mills

 

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